Green spaces, extreme heat, and mortality
This SALURBAL collaboration was funded by a 2019 Wellcome Trust Climate Change and Health Award and led by SALURBAL partners at the University of California, Berkeley.
"Greenspaces, air pollution and climate-related heat mortality in Latin American cities," built upon the unique database developed by SALURBAL, which includes information about the urban environment, socio-economic indicators, and health outcomes for people living in over 300 cities across 11 Latin American countries.
By looking at temperature, air pollution, and greenspaces over time, the study worked to document:
- The impacts of past extreme heat events on health and mortality in Latin American cities;
- How future extreme heat events will affect people's health and mortality in cities, under different global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios;
- How greenspaces and air pollution might modify the impacts of heat on health and mortality; and
- How certain characteristics of urban populations may affect their vulnerability to extreme heat events.
Methodology
The study collected and processed temperature and humidity data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast, available through the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. Greenspace prevalence, configuration areas, have been calculated using Landsat images available at 30m spatial resolution. Air pollution (PM2.5) data were based on a global dataset that integrates satellite, monitor, and modeled data to produce annual means from 1998 to 2016 with ~1km spatial resolution. (See previous SALURBAL research on air pollution in Latin American cities here.) Mortality data and other information about the urban populations within the area of study have been collected and processed in collaboration with the SALURBAL project team.
First, at a baseline (early in the 21st century) we are examining associations between extreme heat events and excess mortality in cities, and how air pollution and greenspaces may modify these associations. Next, future heat-related mortality (for 2051-2055) will be predicted based on climate scenarios with high and low levels of greenhouse gas emissions, and for varying levels of air pollution and greenspaces.